Sunday, June 7, 2009

The Dao of Strategic Assessment (24): Transforming a Crisis Into an Opportunity


The intelligent strategists do not always look for opportunities. They assess their global settings, pontificate their options and slowly decide.

While the gathering of intelligence on the strategic disposition of their target is still in motion, they are constantly assessing it. The intelligent strategist always waits for that grand advantageous moment when the circumstance favors them. Conclusively, they pursue it without any emotion and maximize their opportunity to the fullest.


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June 6, 2009
Saturn deal is called a new business model

BY TIM HIGGINS
FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER

Detroit businessman Roger Penske's move to acquire General Motors' troubled Saturn brand and dealer network could be pioneering -- the start of a new strategy for selling cars and trucks in the United States, experts said Friday.

On Friday, GM announced a tentative deal for Penske Automotive Group to purchase Saturn, a transaction that the companies said should be finalized this fall.

The Detroit automaker will continue to assemble Saturn vehicles for two years, and Penske is talking with other manufacturers about building vehicles that the dealer network would sell.

Jack Nerad of Kelley Blue Book heralded the Penske-Saturn deal as "one of the most significant developments in a month that has been full of significant developments."

"The proposed acquisition marks the beginning of a new business model in this industry," he wrote, "a model in which the distribution side of the business controls the brand, and manufacturing is conducted by one or more sub-contractors."

Penske Group seeks new vehicles for Saturn dealers

Penske Automotive Group is in talks with several automakers about providing new vehicles to the Saturn dealer network.

Penske's deal with General Motors, which has not yet been finalized, provides him with GM-made vehicles for two years.

"We have been in discussions during this diligence period with a number of manufacturers on a worldwide basis," Penske told reporters Friday. "We would expect to have a lineup going forward, which would be manufactured by a worldwide partner."

He expects that eventually the new vehicles could be built in the United States if sales demand it.

The Penske deal is an incredible cap to a historic week in the domestic auto industry, particularly at GM. The automaker filed for bankruptcy protection Monday and announced a deal to sell its Hummer brand Tuesday. By Thursday, word of an impending Penske-Saturn deal had also leaked.

Saturn dealers said they are excited to work with Penske, whose Penske Automotive Group is the nation's No. 2 auto retailer.

"It's phenomenal. Roger is a great guy. I don't think Roger would have got involved in this if he didn't think it would be successful," said Carl Galeana, whose Galeana Automotive Group owns Saturn of Lakeside and Saturn of Warren dealerships. "He rolls up his sleeves and gets work done."

Saturn dealers will be offered a franchise agreement, Penske said. He called the dealer network "one of the best in the business."

"Saturn has a passionate customer base and outstanding dealer network," Penske, chairman of Penske Automotive Group, said in a statement. "For nearly 20 years Saturn has focused on treating the customer right. We share that philosophy, and we want to build on those strengths."

GM said the deal will save more than 350 Saturn dealerships and 13,000 jobs at Saturn and its retailers.

GM's most recent plan called for shutting down the brand at year's end if a buyer couldn't be found.

On a contract basis, GM is to continue production of the Saturn Aura sedan and the Vue and Outlook crossovers. The deal includes Saturn's parts operation.

"We are bringing together two icons: the Saturn brand and the Penske organization," said Jill Lajdziak, Saturn's general manager.

The gray area of the deal is how much control Penske's Saturn will have over the design of the vehicles it sells, said Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of Edmunds.com.

"It's one thing to scour the globe and make deals ... but you didn't really have that much input in terms of the development, design, features, whatever of the product," Anwyl said. "Ultimately, the retail brand is a very nice feature but people are living every day with the vehicle itself and that vehicle has got to measure up with the brand attributes."

On Friday, Penske indicate a desire to keep the Saturn look with future vehicles.

"There's a brand value today in the way these vehicles look," Penske said. "And I would hope that we would have this icon brand value and face across the product line as we go forward."

http://www.freep.com/article/20090606/BUSINESS01/906060412

Friday, June 5, 2009

The Dao of Strategic Assessment (23): Time to Plan and Act



"In planning, no useless move, In strategy, no step is in vain."- Chen Hao


Delineating the end in mind is the first step to building a complete top down strategy.

After reading the following story, what is the grand goal of Sprint's and Palm?


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Sprint's Palm Pre 'War Room'
Elizabeth Woyke, 05.29.09, 6:00 PM ET

Sprint is approaching its June 6 launch of the Palm Pre with military strategy.

The introduction of the hotly anticipated handset will be Sprint's biggest product event of the year. As interest in the phone escalates to a frenzy--in part because of rumored shortages--company representatives say Sprint is prepared for the onslaught.

Extra employees will be on hand to manage crowds, says David Owens, Sprint's director of devices. Sprint is also borrowing manpower from partner Palm, which will dispatch representatives to more than 100 Sprint stores across the country. The additional help will stick around for two months, Owens says.

Both companies are also establishing "situation rooms" to quickly address problems that might arise during launch, particularly tech support issues. If store representatives don't know the answer to a question, they can consult people in the "war rooms" via live chat.

The preparations rival those AT&T took when it released the iPhone. In the days prior to the iPhone 3G's debut last July, AT&T staffed up, created an informational Web site and streamlined its user registration process. (See AT&T Is iPhone Ready.)

Sprint says a successful launch centers on three factors: a great store experience, solid network and worry-free service plans.

Pre buyers will get one-on-one consultations with Sprint salespeople as part of the company's "Ready Now" program. First introduced last fall, it is designed so people can walk out of the store with their phones set up and knowledgeable about their features.

Consumers can choose from several service plans as long as they include Sprint's "Everything Data" package. The cheapest individual plan, with 450 "anytime minutes," will cost $69.99 a month. Those who want an unlimited number of voice minutes will have to pay $99.99 a month. There are also a few plans that specifically target families and businesses.

Sprint says its prices undercut comparable personal digital assistant (PDA) plans from Verizon Wireless and AT&T. The plans are one way the carrier aims to win over consumers who balk at the Pre's $199.99 price tag. "You have to look at the total cost of ownership over the two years, not just the device cost," Owens says.

[ Preparation precedes performance. Good planning always sets the pace for preparation. ]

Preparedness, however, doesn't always translate into success. The iPhone 3G launch frustrated many when an unexpected technical glitch forced Apple and AT&T employees to send would-be customers home empty-handed. Fans of the Pre are already wary because Palm and Sprint have said they may not have enough phones to satisfy customer demand, initially.

While Sprint shoulders the Pre's launch, AT&T and Verizon have been cozying up to Palm. Executives from both companies announced this week that they plan to offer the Pre next year, after Sprint's exclusivity period expires.

Full disclosure: Elevation Partners, which holds a 25% stake in Palm, is also a shareholder in our parent company, Forbes Media.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/29/pre-palm-sprint-technology-wireless-pre.html

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Latest C360 Tour


C360 Consultants recently did a presentation on "The Application of Chinese Strategy" at University of Southern New Hampshire. We specifically covered the topic of strategic assessment.


"This was a class who are less familiar with Sun Tzu. They are a little farther behind in their reading so you were very informative to them. Now they will be inspired to read and study the strategic concepts of Sun Tzu. ... M. Hom and his C360 consulting team are internationally recognized experts on the application of Sunzi and classical Chinese strategy to international business and project management. He has been a frequent lecturer in my graduate courses and his expertise and advice is always appreciated. ... ” -Dr. Fellman



Sunday, May 31, 2009

The Dao of Strategic Assessment (22): Let's Look at the Data


Quality intelligence gathering defines the quality of strategic assessment.


May 29, 2009

Lebron James, and Naked Without Data

In today’s world, companies, entities, people and concepts are naked without data. Making business decisions or predicting trends using data analysis is perhaps the only way to survive the future. However, it is not the raw data, but how you analyze it that matters. In other words, asking the right questions. Like the ones that many Wall Street firms didn’t ask when betting the farm, the house and the cars on mortgage-backed securities.

A good reminder of how to use data smartly came this week, thanks to Lebron James and my beloved Cleveland Cavaliers. As a frame of reference, none of my three professional teams have ever won a championship in their sport in my lifetime. That would be zero wins in approximately 120 attempts. In fact during such time these teams have made it to the finals on just three occasions. Ouch!

Here comes the “naked without data” part:

Moments after the Cavs lost Game 4 in a best-of-seven series, one the “analysts” (not statisticians but rather former NBA stars who likely have not been trained in statistics) “revealed” how stacked the odds were against them coming back to win it. In the history of the NBA playoffs there have been 3-1 series leads exactly 187 times, and only eight times has a team come back to win. So the Cavs odds are only slightly better than 4 percent, right?

Wrong. What Kenny Smith –- one of my favorite entertainers and basketball analysts — forgets when dealing with stats as opposed to offering up his sensational, articulate and simple breakdown of the subtleties of the pro game is that his sample set of 187 prior events had a bias to it that makes it not directly relevant at all in assessing the Cavs odds.

Why? Well, across the 187 instances of 3-1 series leads we would expect that the majority of them were generated by superior teams. For instance if the Lakers, Celtics or Bulls at the height of their respective Magic, Bird and Jordan years held 3-1 leads in the first or second rounds we would EXPECT them to win those series NOT because of the numbers but because of their superiority! In the case of the Cavs and Magic, the Cavs were actually favored to win the series. If the Magic win the series it will be a well-earned upset. Not a shocker, since the Magic won almost as many games as the Cavs during the regular season and we are now in the semi-finals, where only very good teams remain to compete.

So Kenny was starting with a very faulty sample set, which in this case made the Cavs odds look horrendous. What would have been impressive was if Kenny Smith understood his flawed sample set thanks to his statistical and logical training in grade school and provided the number of instances when a favored team was behind 3-1 in the late rounds of the NBA playoffs. THAT would be darn useful. If you threw in home court advantage, since the Cavs would be playing two out of the three remaining games at home, it would be all the better.

Since there are a mere eight instances of teams overcoming those odds, Kenny might be able to do an easy case study to see what happened in those games, to find out if there was a pattern or not and then use his basketball knowledge to tell a truly powerful story. I’m just guessing, but maybe then the odds move to, say, 20 percent from 4 percent. Still far from ideal for Cavs fans, but the Cavs do have the league MVP on their squad in Lebron James. So that should matter. As it did in Game 5.


So how does this relate to the technology industry? Data is a critical weapon and a difference-maker. Real-time analysis of data is one of the reasons why a company like Google has been able to make itself the king of online advertising, because with the ability to quickly, constantly analyze the data, it can then match ads with pretty much any content page across the web.

Of course, no one is giving Kenny Smith a hard time for the statistical irrelevancy of his comment. But we can probably chalk that up to the eternal optimism of true fans.

Copyright 2009 GigaOm. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.nytimes.com/external/gigaom/2009/05/29/29gigaom-lebron-jamesand-naked-without-data-65254.html

Saturday, May 30, 2009

C360's Latest Update


In previous "Collaborative View" posts, we cautiously mentioned that "... the U.S. economy is slowly coming back. ..."

Our research told us that various Silicon Valley companies are currently quite busy and are doing well. We believe that some parts of the U.S. economy will be roaring back late this year.

Beside working on the book, we are currently busy with several market research and strategy development projects.

The alpha draft v.6 of our "Strategic Assessment" book has just been completed. The beta release will be available sometime in the next three to five months.


If you are interested in being a beta reader, please contact us at service[Aatt]collaboration360[dott]com.